Scientific Presentations

LabTalks@­SocialDemography

Department Social Demography
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany, January 21, 2025

Jonas Schöley from the Laboratory of Population Health, Biosfer and MaxHel Center gives a talk on mortality displacement as a convolution problem.

Abstract

Mortality displacement as a convolution problem. How to estimate the distribution of life time gained or lost from time series of counts.

One can only die once and thus, in a closed cohort, any excess death relates to a missing death at a different point in time. This mortality displacement across age and time can be formulated as a convolution – a re-shuffling of one time series to yield another. Central to the convolution is an object of scientific and public interest: the distribution of life time lost (or gained) due to an intervention. This intervention can be a heat-wave, a pandemic, a war, or, on the positive side, an improvement in perinatal care. After introducing the convolution formulation of mortality displacement I demonstrate how to estimate the distribution of life time lost during a summer heatwave.

Online Seminar Talk, January, 21th from 1 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. (Rostock time)