January
21

Scientific Presentations

LabTalks@­SocialDemography

Department Social Demography
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Rostock, Germany, January 21, 2025

Jonas Schöley from the Laboratory of Population Health, Biosfer and MaxHel Center gives a talk on mortality displacement as a convolution problem.

Abstract

Mortality displacement as a convolution problem. How to estimate the distribution of life time gained or lost from time series of counts.

One can only die once and thus, in a closed cohort, any excess death relates to a missing death at a different point in time. This mortality displacement across age and time can be formulated as a convolution – a re-shuffling of one time series to yield another. Central to the convolution is an object of scientific and public interest: the distribution of life time lost (or gained) due to an intervention. This intervention can be a heat-wave, a pandemic, a war, or, on the positive side, an improvement in perinatal care. After introducing the convolution formulation of mortality displacement I demonstrate how to estimate the distribution of life time lost during a summer heatwave.

Online Seminar Talk, January, 21th from 1 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. (Rostock time)

The Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock is one of the leading demographic research centers in the world. It's part of the Max Planck Society, the internationally renowned German research society.