MPIDR Working Paper
Too many men? Subnational population imbalances and male childlessness in Finland
MPIDR Working Paper WP-2024-010, 75 pages.
Rostock, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (June 2024)
Abstract
Male childlessness is increasing in many high-income countries. In Finland in 2022, the share of all men who were childless at age 45 had reached 29%. What is causing these high levels of childlessness is unclear. In this paper, we use rich Finnish population register data to examine whether gender imbalances in regional partner markets are a potential driver of male childlessness. Partner markets are unbalanced in a given region if there is a surplus of men relative to women, or vice versa. The data generally shows increasingly imbalanced partner market situation for men over time, but with considerable regional heterogeneity. Regression results indicate an increased probability of childlessness at age 45 after extended exposure to unbalanced partner markets over the life course. This association is particularly strong for low-income men. These findings are robust across indicators and specifications. Overall, the regional context seems to play a crucial role in the risk of childlessness.
Keywords: Finland, fertility, fertility decline