Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Susan Watkins
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Pennsylvania
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Pennsylvania
Author-Name: Jere Behrman
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Pennsylvania
Author-Name: Eliya Msiyaphazi Zulu
Author-Workplace-Name: African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP)
Title: Introduction to "Research on Demographic Aspects of HIV/AIDS in Rural Africa"
Abstract: This paper introduces a set of papers presented at the conference "Research on Demographic Aspects of HIV/AIDS in Rural Africa", held at the Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, October 28-29, 2002. The aim of the conference was to provide a forum for the presentation of results, to an audience of experts, on a variety of demographic aspects relevant for the study of HIV/AIDS in rural Africa. The aim of this volume is to provide these results to a wider audience. Although the topics covered are diverse, ranging from methodological issues in the study of HIV/AIDS such as sample attrition to substantive issues such as fertility, divorce, and women’s autonomy, the papers are united by their use of two similar data sets collected in rural Malawi and Kenya. This introduction thus begins by briefly describing the contents of the volume and the collaborators, and then focuses on a detailed description of the data used by all authors and on the threats to data quality in these contexts. We conclude that demographic studies of HIV/AIDS in rural Africa are likely to face similar threats, and that these should be routinely recognized and acknowledged.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Malawi, Kenya, HIV/AIDS
Pages: 1-30
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 1
Issue: 1
Year: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/1/1/s1-1.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.S1.1
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:1:y:2003:i:1

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Simona Bignami
Author-Workplace-Name: Université de Montréal
Author-Name: Georges Reniers
Author-Workplace-Name: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Author-Name: Alexander A. Weinreb
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Texas at Austin
Title: An Assessment of the KDICP and MDICP Data Quality
Abstract: This paper evaluates the quality of the data collected as part of the Kenya and Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Projects, two longitudinal household surveys that examine the role of social networks in influencing attitudes and behavior regarding family size, family planning, and HIV/AIDS in, respectively, rural Kenya and Malawi. We investigate three sources of non-sampling error: interviewer effects, response reliability and sample attrition, highlighting the interaction between them, and paying particular attention to their implications for AIDS-related behavioral research.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: agriculture, family planning, interviews, measurements, data quality, attrition, Malawi, Kenya, measurement, reliability, interviewer effects
Pages: 31-76
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 1
Issue: 2
Year: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/1/2/s1-2.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.S1.2
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:1:y:2003:i:2

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Simona Bignami
Author-Workplace-Name: Université de Montréal
Title: Are we measuring what we want to measure?
Abstract: The social context of survey interviews is likely to be important in survey measurement in developing countries, where respondents expect to benefit from participation. In the recent literature on survey measurement, however, there are few attempts to analyze the impact of the respondents’ social context on response error, and they tend to be limited to developed countries. This paper follows the narrow path traced by these attempts. The opportunity for this study is offered by a set of 134 unplanned re-interviews collected during the fieldwork operations of a household panel survey in rural Malawi. Personal benefit was the main reason some respondents were willing to be re-interviewed, since the survey compensated them with an additional gift for the second interview. By comparing the answers to the first and second interview given by the re-interviewed respondents, this paper therefore assesses how the search for personal benefit (which captures some aspects of the respondents’ social context) biased the results.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: surveys, Malawi, survey measurement, consistency, social interaction, response reliability, HIV/AIDS
Pages: 77-108
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 1
Issue: 3
Year: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/1/3/s1-3.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.S1.3
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:1:y:2003:i:3

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Susan Watkins
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Pennsylvania
Author-Name: Ina Warriner
Author-Workplace-Name: World Health Organization
Title: How do we know we need to control for selectivity?
Abstract: In the previous two decades there has been considerable progress in recognizing biases due to selectivity that are associated with the use of observational data to make causal inferences and in developing models to control for these biases statistically. Often there is a difference between estimates produced by models that attempt to control for selectivity and those that do not. Since a difference alone does not persuasively argue for one model over another, analysts typically rely on their a priori expectations of selectivity based on theory or intuition. Here we suggest that the analyst’s judgement about the appropriate analytical model may be informed by simple descriptive statistics and qualitative data. We use data on social networks collected in rural Kenya, since the analysis of networks is likely to raise questions of selectivity, and simple examples. Although we do not provide general rules for assessing when models that control for selectivity should be used, we conclude by recommending that analysts inform their judgement rather than rely on theory and intuition to justify controlling for selectivity. Although our data are particular, the implications of our approach are general, since a priori evaluations of the credibility of assumptions on which analytic models are based can be made in other settings and for other research questions.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: family planning, social networks, selection, Kenya, social network, HIV/AIDS
Pages: 109-142
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 1
Issue: 4
Year: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/1/4/s1-4.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.S1.4
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:1:y:2003:i:4

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Enid Schatz
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Missouri
Title: Comparing, Contextualizing, and Conceptualizing
Abstract: Demographic research mainly focuses on objective variables found in census and survey data. As demographers' interests expand to socially constructed phenomena, the discipline needs to incorporate new tools appropriate for understanding more subjective phenomena. The integration of quantitative and qualitative methods provides the opportunity to analyze data both rich in local meaning and generalizable beyond a small "N." This type of triangulation is particularly necessary in the study of women's situation, an area where quantitative results have generally confounded demographers. Using survey and ethnographic data, this paper demonstrates ways in which qualitative data complements quantitative data on women's situation. I argue that such an iterative methodological process can enrich future investigations in this area by comparing findings, contextualizing quantitative results, and improving the conceptualization of future quantitative measures.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: gender, Africa, measurements, Malawi, qualitative methods, measurement
Pages: 143-174
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 1
Issue: 5
Year: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/1/5/s1-5.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.S1.5
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:1:y:2003:i:5

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Georges Reniers
Author-Workplace-Name: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Title: Divorce and Remarriage in Rural Malawi
Abstract: The demographic study of nuptiality in African countries is not very developed and often of secondary interest in a discussion of the proximate determinants of fertility. This paper uses unusual marriage history data to examine divorce and remarriage in rural Malawi. Life table probabilities of divorce range from 40 to 65 percent and are among the highest on the continent. An investigation into the determinants of marital instability using proportional hazards models confirms the importance of kinship systems and female empowerment, but the mechanism underlying the high divorce rates in Malawi seems to be more complicated than that. This is, for example, illustrated in the effect of the polygyny variables. Marriage, divorce, and remarriage are further considered as empowering strategies that women deploy throughout their lives.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Africa, divorce, marriage, Malawi
Pages: 175-206
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 1
Issue: 6
Year: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/1/6/s1-6.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.S1.6
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:1:y:2003:i:6

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michael Bracher
Author-Workplace-Name: Independent researcher
Author-Name: Susan Watkins
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Pennsylvania
Author-Name: Gigi Santow
Author-Workplace-Name: Independent researcher
Title: "Moving" and Marrying
Abstract: We use a microsimulation model to estimate the proportions of rural Malawian brides and grooms who are already HIV positive when they marry. The model, a demographic model of reproduction and mortality overlaid with a model of disease transmission, incorporates behavioural input data derived from the second round of the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project, which was conducted in three areas of rural Malawi in 2001. We estimate that HIV infection is present in between 13 and 20 per cent of couples. Although young women are more likely to be HIV positive than men of the same age, as a result of their low ages at marriage only around two per cent of brides are estimated to be HIV positive.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Africa, Malawi, micro-simulation, HIV/AIDS
Pages: 207-246
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 1
Issue: 7
Year: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/1/7/s1-7.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.S1.7
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:1:y:2003:i:7

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Eliya Msiyaphazi Zulu
Author-Workplace-Name: African Institute for Development Policy (AFIDEP)
Author-Name: Gloria Chepngeno
Author-Workplace-Name: African Population and Health Research Center (APHRC)
Title: Spousal communication about the risk of contracting HIV/AIDS in rural Malawi
Abstract: This paper uses qualitative and quantitative data from married men and women in rural Malawi to examine how they comprehend their risk to HIV/AIDS and what preventive strategies they consider within marriage. Program efforts to promote behavior change have consistently focused on promoting chastity before marriage and fidelity while married or using condoms. These behavioral prescriptions are suitable for extramarital contexts but not within marriage, where the condom is far from being accepted as a suitable preventive tool and spouses face the reality that one’s vulnerability to AIDS is not confined to his/her behavior alone. The survey data show, unsurprisingly, that those who have the most reason for concern (e.g. those worried about contracting the disease) and those who have greater program and informal social contacts are most likely to communicate. The semi-structured interviews show that husbands and wives use subtle and gendered strategies to encourage fidelity; they talk to each other about the consequences of HIV/AIDS on their children’s and their own lives as a prelude for highlighting and justifying joint sexual prudence. These results show that rather than giving up to fate, marital partners are actively challenging and persuading each other to reform sexual behavior to avoid the intrusion of HIV/AIDS into the home.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: gender, marriage, Malawi, HIV/AIDS
Pages: 247-278
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 1
Issue: 8
Year: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/1/8/s1-8.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.S1.8
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:1:y:2003:i:8

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Kirsten P. Smith
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Pennsylvania
Title: Why are they worried? Concern about AIDS in rural Malawi
Abstract: There are two main types of models of behavioral change. What are collectively referred to as "individual models" are the predominant frameworks for studying risk behaviors including those related to HIV/AIDS. Individual models focus on risk perceptions, attitudes, outcome expectations, perceived norms, and self-efficacy. Models of risk behavior that focus on social or community factors have more recently been developed in response to criticisms of individual models. I use longitudinal data from the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project to study worry about HIV/AIDS. Specifically, I ask, what factors determine how much a person worries about HIV/AIDS, and are the predominant factors those that individual models would suggest, or are there are other determinants that have a greater impact on worry? I find that levels of network worry and suspected spousal infidelity have the strongest and most robust influence on respondent worry, providing support for the importance of social factors.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: behavior, sex behavior, sub-Saharan Africa, Malawi, worry, perceived risk, individual models, social models, networks, sexual behavior, models of health behavior, behavioral change, HIV/AIDS
Pages: 279-318
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 1
Issue: 9
Year: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/1/9/s1-9.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.S1.9
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:1:y:2003:i:9

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Claire Marie Noël-Miller
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Pennsylvania
Title: Concern Regarding the HIV/AIDS epidemic and Individual Childbearing
Abstract: I examine if and how rural Malawians alter their childbearing as a consequence of concern regarding the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The paper is motivated by the debate which opposes two ideas regarding the childbearing effect of high HIV infection rates and heightened AIDS mortality: one, the acceleration of childbearing as individuals find themselves under time pressure to meet their reproductive goals and two, the decrease in childbearing as parents opt to avoid the risk of transmitting the virus. I find some evidence to support the hypothesis of reduced childbearing in the presence of high levels of worry regarding HIV/AIDS. However, this finding does not seem to apply to younger women, who are perhaps subject to relatively stronger childbearing promoting norms.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: fertility, childbearing, sub-Saharan Africa, Malawi, self-perception, HIV/AIDS
Pages: 319-348
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 1
Issue: 10
Year: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/1/10/s1-10.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.S1.10
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:1:y:2003:i:10

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Amy Kaler
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Alberta
Title: "My Girlfriends Could Fill A Yanu-Yanu Bus"
Abstract: In this paper, I investigate the ways that young men in rural southern Malawi talk about HIV and their own perceptions of risk. I relate these findings first to evolving gender relations in Malawi during the AIDS epidemic, and second to HIV prevention measures, with specific recommendations for changes in existing prevention campaigns. I make three claims in this paper: first, that an unknown proportion of sexually active young men say that they are already HIV-positive, in the absence of any medical evaluation or any signs of AIDS; second, that men's claims to be HIV-positive emerge from a particular configuration of masculinity as well as from personal conviction; and third, that this belief is used to justify continuing risky sexual behaviour, such as having multiple partners or not using condoms, on the grounds that this behaviour is no longer dangerous if one has already contracted the virus. This paper is based on observational journals kept by local research assistants in which they recorded mentions of AIDS in informal conversations which they overheard or participated in. I discuss the advantages and disadvantages of this classically anthropological methodology, as distinct from the more survey methods more standard in demography.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Africa, social interactions, Malawi, HIV/AIDS
Pages: 349-372
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 1
Issue: 11
Year: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/1/11/s1-11.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.S1.11
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:1:y:2003:i:11

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alexander A. Weinreb
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Texas at Austin
Title: Change and instability
Abstract: This article examines changes in network structure using data on conversational networks from the 1998 and 2001 rounds of the Malawi Diffusion and Ideation Change project. The principal aims are to show that network structure can change significantly in relatively short periods - in particular at times of rapid social change - and that multilevel analysis is an effective way to explore these types of changes. The article demonstrates that: (i) conversations about AIDS are increasingly occurring within all demographic groups in rural Malawi, (ii) AIDS-related conversational networks have diversified, (iii) there is significant village-level variance in characteristics of reported network partners, but it is a minimal source of total variance in such characteristics, and (iv) that there is significant covariance between the estimated residuals associated with key predictors of size of AIDS- related conversational networks.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Malawi, networks, interaction, multilevel model, HIV/AIDS
Pages: 373-396
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 1
Issue: 12
Year: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/1/12/s1-12.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.S1.12
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:1:y:2003:i:12

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Christoph Bühler
Author-Workplace-Name: Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover
Author-Name: Hans-Peter Kohler
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Pennsylvania
Title: Talking about AIDS
Abstract: This paper explores the significance of social relationships to two important stages in the process of sexual behavioral change in response to increased HIV/AIDS risk in rural Africa: the perceived risk of becoming HIV-infected through unprotected sexual intercourse and the preferred methods of protection either through sexual fidelity, or through condom use. The empirical analyses are based on cross-sectional data from the 'Kenyan Diffusion and Ideational Change Project' (KDICP) which provides information about AIDS-related, ego-centered communication networks of Kenyan men and women. The results show that perceived risks, as well as preferred methods of protection against HIV-infection, depend in general on the prevailing perceptions and favored protective methods within personal communication networks. However, different influential network properties can be found. The risk-perceptions of women are shaped by strong relationships and cohesive network structures. Male's risk perception depends more on the number of risk-perceivers in their communication networks. Heterogeneous relationships of various kinds are influential on women's and men's probability of favoring sexual faithfulness as a method of protection against HIV-infection.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: communication networks, risk behaviors, prevention, Kenya, HIV/AIDS
Pages: 397-438
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 1
Issue: 13
Year: 2003
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/1/13/s1-13.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2003.S1.13
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:1:y:2003:i:13

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vladimir Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung
Title: Introduction to the Special Collection of papers on "Determinants of diverging trends in mortality"
Abstract: This article introduces the Special Collection of papers presented at the first seminar of the Committee on Emerging Health Threats (CEHT) of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP), "Determinants of Diverging Trends of Mortality". The seminar was held in Rostock (Germany) on 19-21 of June 2002. The seminar encouraged studies on adverse mortality trends and widening mortality differentials between and within countries. The introduction to the collection argues that mortality divergence is a new and significant phenomenon in global population health. It then presents the scientific agenda of the seminar and provides a brief overview of the thirteen studies that constitute the Special Collection.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: mortality, mortality analysis
Pages: 1-10
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 2
Issue: 1
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/1/s2-1.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.1
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:1

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jacques Vallin
Author-Workplace-Name: Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Author-Name: France Meslé
Author-Workplace-Name: Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Title: Convergences and divergences in mortality
Abstract: Abdel Omran's 1971 theory of "Epidemiologic Transition" was the first attempt to account for the extraordinary advances in health care made in industrialized countries since the 18th century. In the framework of the Demographic Transition, it implied a general convergence of life expectancies toward a limit imposed by the new epidemiological features of modern societies. However, important failures, occurred in the past decades (mainly the health crisis in Eastern Europe and AIDS in Africa), seem to have stopped that process of convergence. In fact such failures do not really contradict the theory. The latter is much more ruined by the unexpected dramatic improvement in the field of cardiovascular disease experienced since the seventies, which results in a new step of a more general process. On the basis of the broader concept of “Health Transition” initiated by Julio Frenk et al., the present paper tries to rethink the full process in term of divergence/convergence sequences inferred by successive major changes in health technologies and strategies.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: mortality, cause of death, epidemiologic transition, mortality trends, health transition, demographic convergences
Pages: 11-44
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 2
Issue: 2
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/2/s2-2.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.2
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:2

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: France Meslé
Author-Workplace-Name: Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Title: Mortality in Central and Eastern Europe
Abstract: While, during several decades, unfavourable trends in mortality were quite similar in Central Europe and in the former USSR, in the most recent years, these two parts of Europe are diverging. In most Central European countries, life expectancy is now increasing mainly thanks to a decline in cardiovascular mortality. Conversely, cardiovascular mortality is still increasing in Russia and Ukraine and its negative impact is reinforced by a worsening of violent deaths and infectious mortality. The situation of Baltic countries is still uncertain but it is not impossible that these countries soon resume with sustainable progress in life expectancy.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: cause of death, life expectancy, Central Europe, former USSR, cardiovascular diseases, violence
Pages: 45-70
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 2
Issue: 3
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/3/s2-3.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.3
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:3

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vladimir Shkolnikov
Author-Workplace-Name: Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung
Author-Name: Martin McKee
Author-Workplace-Name: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Author-Name: Valeriy V. Chervyakov
Author-Workplace-Name: Transnational Family Research Institute (TFRI)
Author-Name: David A. Leon
Author-Workplace-Name: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Title: Russian mortality beyond vital statistics
Abstract: Analyses of routine data have established that the extreme mortality fluctuations among young and middle-aged men are the most important single component of both temporal changes in Russian life expectancy at birth and in the gap between male and female life expectancy. It is also responsible for the largest share of the life expectancy gap between Russia and other industrialised countries. A case-control study has been used to identify factors associated with mortality among men aged 20 to 55 in the five major cities of the Udmurt Republic in 1998-99. Men dying from external causes and circulatory disease are taken as cases. Matched controls were selected from men of the same age living in the same neighbourhood of residence. Information about characteristics of cases and controls was obtained by interviewing proxies who were family members or friends of the subjects. After exclusion of those deaths for which proxy informant could not be identified, a total of 205 circulatory disease and 333 external cause cases were included together with the same number of controls. Educational level was significantly associated with mortality from circulatory diseases and external causes in a crude analysis. However, this could largely be explained by adjustment for employment, marital status, smoking and alcohol consumption. Smoking was associated with mortality from circulatory disease (crude OR=2.44, 95% CI 1.36-4.36), this effect being slightly attenuated after adjustment for socio-economic factors and alcohol consumption. Unemployment was associated with a large increase in the risk of death from external causes (crude OR=3.63, 95% CI 2.17-6.08), an effect that was still substantial after adjustment for other variables (adjusted OR=2.52, 95% CI 1.43-4.43). A reported history of periods of heavy drinking was linked to both deaths from circulatory disease (crude OR=4.21, 95% CI 2.35-7.55) and external cause mortality (crude OR=2.65, 95% CI 1.69-4.17). Adjustment for other variables reduced the size of these odds ratios, but they remained strikingly large for circulatory disease (adjusted OR=3.54, 95% CI 1.76-7.13) and considerable for external causes (adjusted OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.02-3.00). These may be underestimates of the true effects as nearly all of them increased when employment status (which can in part at least be seen as being on the causal pathway) was excluded from the final model. In summary, however, our key finding is that a history of heavy drinking in the recent past is strongly associated with risk of death from circulatory disease. This provides the first individual-level evidence in support of the hypothesis that episodic heavy drinking is key to explaining the heavy burden of circulatory disease mortality among Russian men of working age.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: mortality, alcohol, Russia, smoking, case control, socioeconomic factors
Pages: 71-104
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 2
Issue: 4
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/4/s2-4.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.4
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:4

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jitka Rychtarikova
Author-Workplace-Name: Univerzita Karlova
Title: The case of the Czech Republic
Abstract: Since the collapse of the socialist system at the beginning of the 1990s, the health situation in the Czech Republic has improved more rapidly than in other CEE countries. Mortality from circulatory diseases decreased significantly at higher ages. The recent decline in mortality is likely to be attributable to technical progress in medical treatment and less affected by the change in lifestyle. While the use of cardiovascular drugs and the number of operations of invasive heart-surgery considerably improved, smoking and alcohol consumption have somewhat augmented at the same time. The recent favourable turnover has currently brought the Czech Republic a little closer to the European average.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: mortality, life style, Czech Republic, favorable mortality turnover, transition period, survival by education, medical factors
Pages: 105-138
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 2
Issue: 5
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/5/s2-5.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.5
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:5

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ellen Nolte
Author-Workplace-Name: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Author-Name: Rembrandt D. Scholz
Author-Workplace-Name: Rostocker Zentrum zur Erforschung des Demografischen Wandels
Author-Name: Martin McKee
Author-Workplace-Name: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Title: Progress in health care, progress in health?
Abstract: This paper examines the potential impact of changes in medical care on changing population health in Lithuania, Hungary and Romania, with west Germany included for comparison. We used the concept of deaths from certain causes that should not occur in the presence of timely and effective health care (amenable mortality) and calculated the contribution of changes in mortality from these conditions to changes in life expectancy between birth and age 75 [e (0-75)] for the periods 1980/81 to 1988 and 1992 to 1997. Temporary life expectancy improved consistently in west Germany (men: 2.7 years, women: 1.6 years). In contrast, gains were relatively small in the other countries, except among Hungarian women, who gained 1.3 years. Romanian men lost 1.3 years. In the 1980s, falling infant mortality made a substantial contribution to improvements in temporary life expectancy in all countries, of about a quarter to half a year. Of this, more than half can be attributed to amenable conditions. At older ages, falling amenable mortality contributed about 40% among those aged over 40 in Germany and, to a lesser extent, Hungary, while causing a loss of life expectancy in Romania. In the 1990s, improvements in infant mortality continued to make substantial contributions to life expectancy in Lithuania and Hungary but had little impact in either Germany or Romania. Among adults, improvements in amenable mortality continued to benefit Hungarians and west Germans. In Lithuania, up to two-thirds of the gain in temporary life expectancy were attributable to falling mortality from ischaemic heart disease whereas medical care otherwise seems to have had a negative impact. Romanian men and women experienced increases in amenable mortality that contributed up to a half of the overall loss of life expectancy. Our findings suggest that during the last 20 years changes in medical care had considerable impact, positively as well as negatively, on changing mortality in selected central and eastern European countries.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: mortality, health, Hungary, medical care, amenable mortality, Lithuania, Romania, West Germany
Pages: 139-162
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 2
Issue: 6
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/6/s2-6.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.6
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:6

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Martin McKee
Author-Workplace-Name: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Author-Name: Ellen Nolte
Author-Workplace-Name: London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Title: Health sector reforms in Central and Eastern Europe
Abstract: The political and economic transition of the 1990s in the countries of central and eastern Europe has been accompanied by wide ranging health care reform. The initial Soviet model has given way to a variety of forms of health insurance. Yet, as this paper argues, reform has too often been preoccupied with ideological imperatives, such as provider autonomy and the creation of funds separate from government, and has given much less thought to the contribution that health care can make to population health. The paper begins by examining the changing nature of health care. It recalls how the Soviet model was able to provide basic care to dispersed populations at low cost but notes how this is no longer sufficient in the face of an increasingly complex health care environment. This complexity reflects several factors, such as the growth in chronic disease, the emergence of new forms of infectious disease, and the introduction of new treatments requiring integrated delivery systems. It reviews evidence on how the former communist countries failed to keep up with developments in the west from the 1970s onwards, at a time when the complexity of health care was becoming apparent. It continues by setting out a framework for the organisation of health care based on the goal of health gain. This involves a series of activities that can be summarised as active purchasing, and which include assessment of health needs, designing effective packages of care, and monitoring outcomes. It concludes by arguing that a new relationship is needed between the state and the organisations involved in funding and delivering health care, to design a system that will tackle the considerable health needs of the people who live in this region.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Eastern Europe, Europe, health, population health, health care reform, Central Europe
Pages: 163-182
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 2
Issue: 7
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/7/s2-7.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.7
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:7

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: John Lynch
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Michigan
Author-Name: Sam Harper
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Michigan
Author-Name: George Davey Smith
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Bristol
Author-Name: Nancy Ross
Author-Workplace-Name: McGill University
Author-Name: Michael Wolfson
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Ottawa
Author-Name: Jim Dunn
Author-Workplace-Name: St. Michael's Hospital
Title: US regional and national cause-specific mortality and trends in income inequality: descriptive findings
Abstract: We examined the concordance of income inequality trends with 30-year US regional trends in cause-specific mortality and 100-year trends in heart disease and infant mortality. The evidence suggests that any effects of income inequality on population health trends cannot be reduced to simple processes that operate across all contexts and in all time periods. If income inequality does indeed drive population health, it implies that income inequality would have to be linked and de-linked across different time periods, with different exposures to generate the observed heterogeneous trends and levels in the causes of mortality shown here.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: mortality, income, trends, income inequality, population health, cause-specific mortality, United States of America
Pages: 183-228
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 2
Issue: 8
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/8/s2-8.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.8
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:8

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Anton E. Kunst
Author-Workplace-Name: Erasmus University Medical Center
Author-Name: Vivian Bos
Author-Workplace-Name: Erasmus University Medical Center
Author-Name: Johan P. Mackenbach
Author-Workplace-Name: Erasmus University Medical Center
Author-Name: Otto Andersen
Author-Workplace-Name: Danmarks Statistik
Author-Name: Mario Cardano
Author-Workplace-Name: Università degli Studi di Torino (UNITO)
Author-Name: Giuseppe Costa
Author-Workplace-Name: Università degli Studi di Torino (UNITO)
Author-Name: Seeromanie Harding
Author-Workplace-Name: Medical Research Council
Author-Name: Örjan Hemström
Author-Workplace-Name: Stockholms Universitet
Author-Name: Richard Layte
Author-Workplace-Name: Economic and Social Research Institute
Author-Name: Enrique Regidor
Author-Workplace-Name: Ministry of Health, Spain
Author-Name: Alison Reid
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Western Australia
Author-Name: Paula Santana
Author-Workplace-Name: Universidade de Coimbra
Author-Name: Tapani Valkonen
Author-Workplace-Name: Helsingin Yliopisto (University of Helsinki)
Title: Monitoring of trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality
Abstract: This paper presents estimates of changes in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality between the 1980s and the 1990s in nine European countries. The best available evidence shows that relative inequalities in mortality generally widened, while the absolute gap remains about the same. However, the pace of change varied greatly, both between countries and within countries (by age and sex). Additional analyses of specific countries illustrated that data problems can often impede an accurate and detailed assessment of change in inequalities in mortality. These illustrations stressed the importance of evaluating methodological problems, and they point to the urgent need for further development of data sources.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: mortality, Europe, trends, methodology, socioeconomic factors
Pages: 229-254
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 2
Issue: 9
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/9/s2-9.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.9
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:9

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Irma T. Elo
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Pennsylvania
Author-Name: Greg L. Drevenstedt
Author-Workplace-Name: University of Pennsylvania
Title: Cause-specific contributions to black-white differences in male mortality from 1960 to 1995
Abstract: Between 1960 and 1995 the black-white difference in male life expectancy in the United States increased from 6.7 years to 8.2 years. To provide insights into why mortality trends have been more adverse for black men than for white men, we investigate which causes of death were principally responsible for changes in the black-white difference in male mortality at ages 15-64 between 1960 and 1995. We find that black-white differences in male mortality varied substantially during this period. The gap increased in the 1960s, declined in the 1970s, and widened in the 1980s-early 1990s. Our findings reveal considerable variation in black-white disparities by cause of death and by age, as well as changes in the relative importance of various causes of death to the black-white male mortality disparity over time. The results suggest that consequences of black-white differences in socioeconomic status, access to quality health care, living conditions, and residential segregation vary by cause of death.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Pages: 255-276
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 2
Issue: 10
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/10/s2-10.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.10
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:10

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Emmanuelle Cambois
Author-Workplace-Name: Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Title: Occupational and educational differentials in mortality in French elderly people
Abstract: Mortality follow-up of two census samples allowed an estimate of socio-economic differentials in mortality for old men, using occupational classes and levels of education reported by individuals when they were active. The study shows persisting mortality differentials after 60 years of age. Over the 1960-65 and 1990-95 periods mortality differentials remained constant between non-manual upper classes and manual workers, while differentials have increased between the upper classes and the least skilled manual workers. Educational status has an impact on the mortality risks, independently from occupational status; the magnitude of its impact slightly changed over time. Level of education partly explains occupational differentials in mortality. The study shows that a differentiated increase in the average level of education can impact on trends in occupational differentials in mortality.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: mortality, education, France, occupation, old age, social differentials, trends, mortality differentials
Pages: 277-304
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 2
Issue: 11
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/11/s2-11.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.11
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:11

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Tapani Valkonen
Author-Workplace-Name: Helsingin Yliopisto (University of Helsinki)
Author-Name: Pekka Martikainen
Author-Workplace-Name: Helsingin Yliopisto (University of Helsinki)
Author-Name: Jenni Blomgren
Author-Workplace-Name: Terveyden ja hyvinvoinnin laitos (National Institute for Health and Welfare)
Title: Increasing excess mortality among non-married elderly people in developed countries
Abstract: This article analyses changes in marital status differences in mortality from approximately 1970 to 1995 among men and women aged 65-74 in ten developed countries (Belgium, Canada, Denmark, England and Wales, Finland, France, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden). Data were obtained from the United Nations Demographic Yearbooks and national statistical sources. According to the results there has been a trend towards increasing excess mortality among single men compared to married men and single, divorced and widowed women compared to married women in most western European countries and Canada in the 1980s and 1990s. This has been brought about by a more rapid decline in mortality among married persons and a slower decline or even an increase among non-married persons. In Japan the excess mortality of non-married men and women decreased.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: mortality, developed countries, marital status, old age, trends, mortality differences, inequalities
Pages: 305-330
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 2
Issue: 12
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/12/s2-12.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.12
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:12

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Alberto Minujin
Author-Workplace-Name: United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)
Author-Name: Enrique Delamonica
Author-Workplace-Name: United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)
Title: Socio-economic inequalities in mortality and health in the developing world
Abstract: Trends in child mortality disparities show that within country inequities have remained constant in some countries and worsened in most of the other ones. Only three countries, with relatively small populations which comprise less than 2 per cent of our sample, were able to achieve both a reduction in disparity and improvements (or no decline) in national average U5MR. The evolution of nutrition and DPT3 immunisation seems more promising.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: developing countries, inequality, socioeconomic trends, under-five mortality, wealth gap, equity, socioeconomy
Pages: 331-354
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 2
Issue: 13
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/13/s2-13.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.13
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:13

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Narayan Sastry
Author-Workplace-Name: RAND Corporation
Title: Urbanization, development and under-five mortality differentials by place of residence in São Paulo, Brazil, 1970-1991
Abstract: In this paper, I examine differentials in under-five mortality for the state of São Paulo, Brazil, between urban and rural areas and by location within urban areas over a 21-year period between 1970 and 1991. I also investigate economic inequalities in under-five mortality for urban areas. During the period 1970-1991, much of the infant and child mortality transition unfolded in São Paulo. I investigate whether these improvements in mortality were accompanied by narrowing differentials by place of residence and declining economic inequalities in mortality. I draw on microdata from Brazilian censuses conducted in 1970, 1980, and 1991.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: mortality, Brazil, urbanization, under-five mortality, development, Sao Paulo
Pages: 355-386
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 2
Issue: 14
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/2/14/s2-14.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S2.14
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:2:y:2004:i:14

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gerda Neyer
Author-Workplace-Name: Stockholms Universitet
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Stockholms Universitet
Title: Contemporary Research on European Fertility: Introduction
Abstract: This paper introduces a collection of related studies on different aspects of research on European fertility and family dynamics. The authors who have contributed to this special Volume presented their papers at a working party at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, April 2004. This collection has been produced in honor of Jan M. Hoem for his 65th birthday. It provides an overview of important approaches to, and relevant topics of European fertility research, as well as a number of case studies researching European fertility. In this introduction, we first give a brief summary of the present state of arts in fertility research in Europe, and we then proceed with an overview of the articles of the Volume.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: fertility, Europe, fertility research
Pages: 1-14
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 3
Issue: 1
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/3/1/s3-1.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.1
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:3:y:2004:i:1

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Francesco Billari
Author-Workplace-Name: Università Bocconi
Title: Becoming an Adult in Europe: A Macro(/Micro)-Demographic Perspective
Abstract: Extreme cases in demography are important challenges for researchers, and the still important heterogeneity of European societies is a blessing for scholars interested in studying the importance of cultural and institutional factors. In the transition to adulthood the "latest-late" pattern of Southern Europe cohabits with its opposite "earliest-early" pattern of the Nordic countries. In this paper, I discuss multifaceted approaches to the explanation of why becoming an "adult" in Europe appears so diverse. I use secondary data analyses and present cross-country correlations: welfare state and institutional arrangements, historical and deeply rooted cultural differences, as well as economic and policy factors, and ideational change. Moreover, micro-level determinants play different roles in different societies. Future research on the transition to adulthood in Europe needs to be multilevel, comparative and interdisciplinary, and to consider the potential implication of persistent differences in patterns.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: Europe, transition to adulthood, comparative demography, cross-national relationships
Pages: 15-44
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 3
Issue: 2
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/3/2/s3-2.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.2
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:3:y:2004:i:2

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Johan Surkyn
Author-Workplace-Name: Vrije Universiteit Brussels
Author-Name: Ron Lesthaeghe
Author-Workplace-Name: Vrije Universiteit Brussels
Title: Value Orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe: An Update
Abstract: The core issue in this article is the empirical tracing of the connection between a variety of value orientations and the life course choices concerning living arrangements and family formation. The existence of such a connection is a crucial element in the so-called theory of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). The underlying model is of a recursive nature and based on two effects: firstly, values-based self-selection of individuals into alternative living arrangement or household types, and secondly, event-based adaptation of values to the newly chosen household situation. Any testing of such a recursive model requires the use of panel data. Failing these, only “footprints” of the two effects can be derived and traced in cross-sectional data. Here, use is made of the latest round of the European Values Surveys of 1999-2000, mainly because no other source has such a large selection of value items. The comparison involves two Iberian countries, three western European ones, and two Scandinavian samples. The profiles of the value orientations are based on 80 items which cover a variety of dimensions (e.g. religiosity, ethics, civil morality, family values, social cohesion, expressive values, gender role orientations, trust in institutions, protest proneness and post-materialism, tolerance for minorities etc.). These are analysed according to eight different household positions based on the transitions to independent living, cohabitation and marriage, parenthood and union dissolution. Multiple Classification Analysis (MCA) is used to control for confounding effects of other relevant covariates (age, gender, education, economic activity and stratification, urbanity). Subsequently, Correspondence Analysis is used to picture the proximities between the 80 value items and the eight household positions. Very similar value profiles according to household position are found for the three sets of countries, despite the fact that the onset of the SDT in Scandinavia precedes that in the Iberian countries by roughly twenty years. Moreover, the profile similarity remains intact when the comparison is extended to an extra group of seven formerly communist countries in central and Eastern Europe. Such pattern robustness is supportive of the contention that the ideational or “cultural” factor is indeed a non-redundant and necessary (but not a sufficient) element in the explanation of the demographic changes of the SDT. Moreover, the profile similarity also points in the direction of the operation of comparable mechanisms of selection and adaptation in the contrasting European settings.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: cohabitation, demographic transition, Europe, family characteristics, fertility theory, marriage, values
Pages: 45-86
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 3
Issue: 3
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/3/3/s3-3.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.3
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:3:y:2004:i:3

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Caroline H. Bledsoe
Author-Workplace-Name: Northwestern University
Title: Reproduction at the Margins: Migration and Legitimacy in the New Europe
Abstract: One of the most compelling demographic questions in contemporary Europe has been whether immigrant populations will bring their youthful age pyramids to help support Europe’s subfertile, aging populations. But how do immigrants envision their own reproductive life trajectories across vast, ambiguous political boundaries whose seismic shifts can threaten their security? This paper reviews some recent literature from demography, anthropology, and the media as well as several case studies to suggest that for immigrant families at the political margins of Europe, especially those from developing countries, the most pressing fertility question is not numbers of children. It is instead the legitimacy that children may provide in their families’ efforts to gain work, social security, and rights to settle. This implies that the reproductive practices adopted by immigrants in Europe may derive less from traditions in their home countries than from efforts to adapt to new rules of “belonging” in Europe. Indeed, what seem very striking in the light of conspicuously low and increasingly non-marital fertility in mainstream Western Europe are the increasing demands placed on immigrants to pursue legitimacy in their reproductive lives. The paper concludes that levels of fertility among immigrants are unlikely to assimilate to the national norms until people’s status becomes more secure. Finally, just as we can no longer rest on conventional notions of reproductive practices in the developing world, it is increasingly impossible to draw general conclusions about fertility in Europe without keeping the developing world in view.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: fertility, Europe, immigrants, anthropology, marginalization, legitimacy, globalization, agency
Pages: 87-116
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 3
Issue: 4
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/3/4/s3-4.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.4
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:3:y:2004:i:4

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Elizabeth Thomson
Author-Workplace-Name: Stockholms Universitet
Title: Step-families and Childbearing Desires in Europe
Abstract: Increases in union stability and non-union childbearing during the latter half of the 20th century produced substantial increases in the prevalence of step-families. Research on step-family fertility in several European countries and the United States show that, net of a couple’s combined number of children (hers, his and theirs), birth risks are elevated when the child is the couple’s first or second. These patterns have been interpreted in terms of unique values of first and second shared children that overcome costs of rearing larger numbers of children in stepfamilies. Such inferences require that all births are wanted or that unwanted births are as likely for couples with as for those without stepchildren. Analyses of several European fertility and family surveys show that previously observed patterns of stepfamily childbearing are replicated in desires for another child, providing stronger support for motivational explanations of childbearing patterns in step-families.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: fertility, Europe, stepfamily, fertility desires
Pages: 117-134
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 3
Issue: 5
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/3/5/s3-5.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.5
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:3:y:2004:i:5

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Øystein Kravdal
Author-Workplace-Name: Universitetet i Oslo
Title: An Illustration of the Problems Caused by Incomplete Education Histories in Fertility Analyses
Abstract: When assessing the importance of education for fertility, one should ideally use complete education histories. Unfortunately, such data are often not available. It is illustrated here, using register data for Norwegian women born in 1969, that inclusion of educational level at the latest age observed (28), rather than at the current age, can give substantially biased education effect estimates. It is also illustrated that imputation of education for earlier ages may lead to wrong conclusions. A simple imputation of educational level and enrolment based on the assumption that everyone passes through the educational system with the officially stipulated progress gives particularly misleading results. Somewhat better estimates are obtained when a slower progress more in accordance with reality is assumed, or when educational level and enrolment are imputed stochastically on the basis of distributions calculated from real data. Obviously, one should be very careful when faced with incomplete education histories, and try to make use of relevant information from other sources about the actual educational careers.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: fertility, birth rate, education, Norway, registry files, endogenous, enrolment, imputation, simultaneous models, registry data
Pages: 135-154
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 3
Issue: 6
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/3/6/s3-6.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.6
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:3:y:2004:i:6

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gunnar Andersson
Author-Workplace-Name: Stockholms Universitet
Title: Childbearing Developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: A Comparison
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide a comparative overview of recent trends and patterns in childbearing in the three Scandinavian countries: Denmark, Norway, and Sweden. We use indexes produced by applying event-history techniques to register data of the three countries in order to describe and contrast fertility developments by birth order over the last three decades of the 20th century. By combining the same type of data from three countries, we get a very accurate picture of various cross-country differences in fertility levels. We can determine to what extent developments in one country are specific to that country, and to what extent they are part of a more general Nordic pattern of childbearing. We demonstrate how Swedish fertility has fluctuated relatively strongly during the whole period while Danish and Norwegian fertility have evolved more gradually. Nevertheless, trends in Norway and Sweden appear fairly synchronized. A turnaround from decreasing to increasing levels of childbearing is, for example, evident in 1977 in both Norway and Sweden. In Denmark, a similar turnaround occurs considerably later, in 1983. A shift to shorter birth intervals in Sweden during the 1980s is specific to that country and contributed to its stronger increase in fertility during that decade.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: fertility, childbearing, Denmark, Norway, Scandinavia, Sweden, childbearing trends
Pages: 155-176
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 3
Issue: 7
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/3/7/s3-7.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.7
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:3:y:2004:i:7

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Andres Vikat
Author-Workplace-Name: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE)
Title: Women’s Labor Force Attachment and Childbearing in Finland
Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of women’s economic activity, earnings and take-up of child home care allowance on childbearing, using a ten percent sample from a longitudinal register data set that covers the entire female population of reproductive age in Finland in 1988-2000. Results show that a woman’s economic activity and income were positively correlated with entry into motherhood and to a lesser extent with having a second child. This supports the notion of a common pattern of this relationship in the Nordic countries. In the light of Finland’s rollercoaster economic development in the 1990s, the effects of a change in female population composition by economic characteristics on the fertility trend were small.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: fertility, education, employment, family policy, Finland, fertility determinants, unemployment
Pages: 177-212
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 3
Issue: 8
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/3/8/s3-8.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.8
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:3:y:2004:i:8

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Livia Sz. Oláh
Author-Workplace-Name: Stockholms Universitet
Author-Name: Ewa Frątczak
Author-Workplace-Name: Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie
Title: Becoming a Mother in Hungary and Poland during State Socialism
Abstract: In this paper, we study the transition to motherhood in the first co-residential union in the dual-earner context of state socialism, namely in Hungary and Poland between the late 1960s and the end of the 1980s. Our analyses are based on data extracted from the Polish and the Hungarian Fertility and Family Surveys of the early 1990s. We use the hazard regression method as our analytical tool. Our results for Hungary indicate that women’s employment does not necessarily reduce the propensity to become a mother if the combination of labor-force participation and family life has been facilitated by policy measures. In Poland however, this was more difficult, and state support was somewhat less generous, thus part-time workers and housewives had substantially higher first-birth intensity than full-time employed women. Even so, we find indication for Poland, that as policy measures increasingly improved the conditions to combine employment and family responsibilities, the propensity to have the first child increased. The timing of first birth varied greatly across educational levels. Highly educated women were more likely to postpone the transition to motherhood, which in turn resulted in their overall lower propensity to have the first child in both countries, but less so in Hungary than in Poland.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: gender, education, Poland, gender relations, Hungary, female employment, first birth, educational attainment, women's economic independence
Pages: 213-244
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 3
Issue: 9
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/3/9/s3-9.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.9
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:3:y:2004:i:9

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vladimíra Kantorová
Author-Workplace-Name: United Nations
Title: Education and Entry into Motherhood: The Czech Republic during State Socialism and the Transition Period (1970-1997)
Abstract: The Czech Republic presently shows one of the lowest total fertility rates (TFR) in Europe. A decline in period fertility followed the transition from a centrally planned economy to a market economy that started in 1990. In this study, we investigate women’s transition to first births, focusing on the impact of female education. We make a distinction between the effects of education attainment and time elapsed since completion of education. There are two aspects to the role of education that influenced the delay of entry into motherhood in the 1990s. First, during early adulthood women spent more time in education than their contemporaries did in the era of state socialism. Second, women entered motherhood much later after completion of education than before, which contrasts with the previous pattern of a strong immediate effect the completion of studies had on first-birth risks. The decline in first-birth risks in the 1990s applies more so to women with a higher level of education than to those with a lower level. We argue that greater education differentiation of labor market opportunities and constraints brought about greater education differentiation in the timing of entry into motherhood.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: education, first birth, state socialism, transition to market economy, women's education
Pages: 245-274
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 3
Issue: 10
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/3/10/s3-10.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.10
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:3:y:2004:i:10

Template-type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Michaela Kreyenfeld
Author-Workplace-Name: Hertie School of Governance
Title: Fertility Decisions in the FRG and GDR: An Analysis with Data from the German Fertility and Family Survey
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to compare family policies and fertility patterns in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) and the German Federal Republic (FRG). Among other aspects, both societies particularly differed in the integration of women into the labor market. By contrasting the fertility development in these two societies, this paper aims to illuminate how women’s education and employment relates to fertility decisions in societal contexts that support (in the case of the GDR) and hamper (in the case of the FRG) the compatibility between work and family life. Data for this analysis comes from the German Fertility and Family Survey (of the year 1992). We provide descriptive statistics for all birth parities, but we limit the multivariate event history analysis to first births only.
Classification-JEL: J1, Z0
Keywords: event history analysis, Germany, first birth, event history, former German Democratic Republic, life course analysis
Pages: 275-318
Journal: Demographic Research Special Collections
Volume: 3
Issue: 11
Year: 2004
File-URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/special/3/11/s3-11.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.S3.11
Handle: RePEc:dem:drspec:v:3:y:2004:i:11